Guwahati, September 2026: Northeast India is witnessing an increasingly unusual pattern of climate extremes, with intense one-day rainfall occurring alongside longer dry spells, according to a 52-year analysis of weather data covering 1971–2022. The findings highlight growing variability in the region’s monsoon behaviour and underline the need for stronger preparedness for both floods and drought-like conditions.
The study, published in the International Journal of Climatology, was jointly conducted by scientists from the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting and the India Meteorological Department. Researchers developed an India Climate Extremes Index using long-term rainfall and temperature observations and examined seven categories of climate extremes. Trends were assessed using the Mann-Kendall statistical method.
A significant finding is that Northeast India is the only region in the country where short-duration but extremely heavy rainfall events show a statistically significant increasing trend. Scientists link the pattern to factors including warmer conditions over the Bay of Bengal, increased atmospheric moisture and the region’s complex geography. At the same time, longer sequences of rain-free days and drought-like conditions are also becoming more frequent.
Researchers describe this combination of extreme wet and dry conditions as an indication of increasing monsoon variability rather than a simple shift towards either a wetter or drier climate.
The study calls for stronger flood preparedness alongside advance drought-management planning. It also recommends greater use of local-scale monitoring, as regional averages may conceal highly uneven weather extremes. Agriculture, water resources, health and infrastructure agencies are urged to adopt coordinated strategies to manage increasing rainfall variability.
The research suggests that the climate challenge facing Northeast India is no longer limited to floods or droughts alone, but increasingly involves preparing for both extremes within the same changing monsoon system.
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